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Considering the huge drop in volume compared to last year, would you like to restate your opinion on inventory and absorption rate stated below? It seems like using the AR from all of 2007 to decide if this is a buyers/sellers market is no longer valid.
Posted by: Alex | March 09, 2008 at 01:26 AM
Excellent point Alex. Given the actual sales of 5 units in January, this tells us that at the time, when 64 units were on the market, there was actually a 12.8 month supply, at that sales rate. This is an incredible buyers market, according to this formula. But January is a relatively slow sales month.
It’s now March 9, 2008, and there are 76 units available in Lafayette. February saw 10 sales.
Sales for January of 2007 were 15 units. February of 2007 sold 12 units.
Seller’s market or buyer’s market? Based on what criteria? When people ask me, which happens quite often, I usually say that Lamorinda is an area where if you put a good house on the market at a good price, it will attract multiple offers, which will drive the price higher than asking. That would give the impression of a seller's market. Now more than ever, it is important to price your house correctly if you are selling. If you miss setting the price correctly in this market, the house will sit (Buyer's market). Buyers are being more cautious these days than in years past.
Posted by: Bob Wegener | March 09, 2008 at 08:05 PM